Reasons why a defensive player is likely to be the pick at 5.

Every action and word this off-season, combined with the front office knowing so many fans want Baker Mayfield, points to us drafting a QB at 5. The scouting, work-outs and, of course, the hype can lead one to point and say, “See, it’ll be a QB! But not just any quarterback, Baker Mayfield HAS to be the guy”. Sounds logical, right?

After all, Elway just gave an illuminating presser, didn’t he? (Man, I need a sarcasm font). He said he wanted a cerebral QB after watching Peyton Manning play. He no longer wanted a big armed guy and hadn’t in “six or seven years”. He said you need to play from the pocket to win championships. Except two things. He drafted “cerebral” Trevor who wasn’t athletic or big-armed. How did that work out?

Also, Foles beat Brady*. Wilson beat Manning. And if not for our defense, Manning would’ve lost, again, against a mobile big-armed QB. Not to mention, Wilson came one run from beating Brady*. He also said he didn’t think a Kubiak QB would fit with a Billy Musgrave scheme, but he signed Case Keenum.

Elway stated that there was no consensus among his staff which of the top four QBs in this draft they agreed on. Yikes! If you pick a QB in the top five, shouldn’t you have a clear-cut winner? One that fits best with Billy Musgrave’s plan? I’d say that whole presser was hooie, except…

He’s not sure about picking up Shane Ray’s fifth year option. He had concerns about Adam Gotsis. Add in Shaq Barrett not singing his tender yet, and you can see that this is where the real meat in that presser was.

My take is that those three hinge on the draft. Who we get will have a domino effect on them. I’d guess that if we draft a LB/DE at 5, Barrett and/or Ray, are gone. Shaq won’t have any chance of starting (barring injury) and will want to play for a team that would give him that chance.

As far as Shane, Elway has two choices: trade him draft night (or thereabouts) or keep him for the remaining year and he and the rookie duke it out. However, not sure that is a financially sound choice.

So, defense makes the most sense if they stay at 5. Which he also said was open for business. I’m going to put that in the same category as everything else he said, except about Ray & Gotsis. When they say they want a week one impact player, that’s not a rookie quarterback. Joseph on getting a linebacker:

“We have nine (eight) picks in the draft and that’s always a critical spot…that’s definitely an area we have to address in the draft. Having nine (eight) picks, it’s going to be fun to finally draft a guy that Reggie (Herring) can develop and become a full time player for us. We’ve drafted lower round guys and free agents more often at inside backer, but we have a chance to draft a guy maybe higher. That’s going to be fun to watch Reggie coach.”

He said above before the Gotsis arrest, so maybe an outside linebacker isn’t as top of a need/want anymore? Either way, the question is will he want a hybrid or traditional guy? Both types should be there at five if other teams make a run on QB’s. Roquan Smith and Tremaine Edmunds wouldn’t be reaches.

However, someone like Bradley Chubb would certainly address both DE and linebacker if they use him as an edge guy ala DeMarcus Ware. Bottom line is, either John Elway is going to shaft the  when he doesn’t need to or they draft one or two impact players in the first round. Maybe the next Von Miller.

Why not a QB? First, Elway could’ve easily moved Paxton Lynch and Chad Kelly and didn’t. He doesn’t need to keep them as some cover he’s not going to draft a QB most of the pundits, and he himself, talks like he’s adding one. If he really wanted that to be true, one or both would be gone by now, especially before rosters were filled and money spent on other teams.

Secondly, Elway needs a slam dunk. Even Matt Russell said they need a week one impact player. That’s not a QB. Could Quenton Nelson or Saquon Barkley be in play? Sure. A guard did allow Brady* to get strip-sacked and why NE* lost. Hmm, I wonder if Tommy was more mobile if he’d have been able to outrun the defensive rusher? Moving on.

The two issues with that are I’ve seen some say the price for a Guard would be a waste of money at 5 and same for RB because their fifth year contracts would be higher than what the market sets. Not to mention, typical running backs fall off a cliff production after 25. More than that, though, with the above questions about Ray, Barrett and Gotsis (not to mention the state of Wolfe being able to play a full season), one can’t help but circle back to biggest need, for the price.

If we drop back with the Bills, then we could take a defensive guy, OL and TE (my greatest need), but that’s for a different day.

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