2012 QB Class may offer insights into the 2018 class

When I look at how many names are entering this draft and the split consensus on most of them, it reminded me of the 2012 class. Andrew Luck was the only one who seemed like a sure fire pick and he was. After him though, there was a wild difference in opinion. Like that class, this year’s crop may be have some surprising hits and misses.

What the table below shows is that COACHING and TIMING is EVERYTHING. Luck’s talent elevated a team that was in a good offensive spot from the years Manning spent building it, but the defense, suffered. Eventually the coaching caught up and calamity struck. Twice.

Being drafted to the right team may mean more than what spot you’re drafted or even your talent level. Had Luck been taken to Denver, he would have sat behind Peyton Manning; however, he may have started in 2014 with an OL better than what Indy had. Had he been drafted to Miami, that line OL may have protected him better and he’d have a couple rings. What if Wheedon had been drafted to anywhere else, but Cleveland? If RG3 had gone to Seattle, along with Beast Mode, he may have survived.

One thing is certain, in 2012 no one would have guessed that both third round quarterbacks would have rings and the first round guys have none. What this also shows is if you get it wrong, you’re hosed for a while. The good news is though, it also shows that if your coaches do the right thing and build a team to win, a diamond in the rough, or two, could be found. If Denver doesn’t take that guy you want a 5, who knows, maybe the guy they do take later is the Wilson.

A safe bet is, none of the guys in this draft have a shot unless the coaching gets it right.

NameRound/ NumberSB WinPO Win.500 W
Andrew Luck1/103/53
Robert Griffin III1/200/11
Ryan Tannenhill1/800/11
Brandon Wheedon1/22000
Brock Osweiler 2/5701/21
Russell Wilson3/7519/126
Nick Foles3/8813/42
Kirk Cousins4/10200/21
Ryan Lindely6/185000
BJ Coleman7/243000
Chandler Harnish7/253000

Projected 2018 QBs. Which is Russell Wilson and which is RGIII? How about Luck who gets destroyed behind a bad OL? Or the undrafted one who finds himself on the perfect team, at the perfect time and parlays it into 36 million? When it comes to quarterbacking, it’s a crap shoot and the coach holds the die.

Austin AllenJosh AllenJT Barrett Kurt BenkertSam Darnold
Danny EtlingLuke FalkRiley FergusonQuinton FlowersLamar Jackson
Kyle LaulettaTanner LeeChase LittonBaker MayfieldJosh Rosen
Brogan RobackMason RudolfNic ShimonekMike White Logan Woodside

 

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